2025-04-14
【學術亮點】氣候變遷對台灣重要氣候變數的影響及其對農作物生產的潛在影響
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Intelligent Detection: Development of expert diagnosis system for crop cultivation and management【Department of Agronomy / Bo-Jein Kuo / Professor】
智慧檢測：作物栽培管理專家診斷系統開發【農藝系郭寶錚教授】
上架日期2025/4/2
智慧檢測：作物栽培管理專家診斷系統開發【農藝系郭寶錚教授】
| 論文篇名 | 英文：The Effect of Climate Change on Important Climate Variables in Taiwan and Its Potential Impact on Crop Production 中文：氣候變遷對台灣重要氣候變數的影響及其對農作物生產的潛在影響 |
| 期刊名稱 | Agriculture-BASEL |
| 發表年份, 卷數, 起迄頁數 | 2025, 15(7), 766 |
| 作者 | Shih-Lun Fang, Bing-Yun Tsai, Chun-Yi Wu, Sheng-Chih Chang, Yi-Lung Chang and Bo-Jein Kuo (郭寶錚)* |
| DOI | 10.3390/agriculture15070766 |
| 中文摘要 | 全球暖化所導致參考蒸發散量（ET₀）與降水量的變化，將對水資源與農業產生重大的影響。由於氣候變遷的實質影響隨地區而異，因此進行區域性研究十分必要。然而，聚焦於臺灣的趨勢分析仍相對有限。因此，本研究分析了1995至2022年間臺灣地區ET₀、降水量及主要的氣候變數（氣溫、蒸氣壓差、風速及太陽輻射）的變化趨勢，並進行單一測站與多站尺度的趨勢分析。單站分析結果顯示，年與季尺度的氣溫、太陽輻射與ET₀多呈現上升趨勢，而一半以上的測站之風速則顯著下降。多站分析進一步確認ET₀整體有上升趨勢。在東部地區，氣溫上升配合蒸氣壓差與風速的下降可能增加病蟲害風險。臺灣的乾旱指數整體呈下降趨勢，尤其以夏季最為明顯，東部地區更有75%的測站出現顯著下降，顯示氣候正朝向乾燥方向發展。此結果暗示著未來在水資源受限的情況下，臺灣適合種植的作物選項可能減少。此外，年與季尺度的降水量略有下降，且中部地區降水分布更為不均，顯示強化水利設施與灌溉系統的必要性。以上研究結果可協助研究人員與政策制定者評估氣候變遷在臺灣不同地區的乾濕變化及其對農業生產潛在影響。 |
| 英文摘要 | Alterations in reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and precipitation (PP) resulting from global warming substantially affect water resources and agriculture. This study analyzed trends in ET0, PP, and key climate variables—including air temperature (T), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), wind speed, and solar radiation (Rs)—across Taiwan from 1995 to 2022. Trends were assessed using the modified Mann–Kendall test and the multivariate Man–Kendall test at both station-wise and multi-station scales. Results indicated that ET0 was primarily influenced by Rs, followed by T, wind speed, and VPD. Station-wise analysis revealed increasing trends in annual and seasonal T, Rs, and ET0, while over 50% of wind speed series showed significant declines. Multi-station analysis confirmed an overall rise in ET0. In eastern Taiwan, rising T and declining VPD and wind speed may increase the risk of pest and disease outbreaks. The arid index exhibited a general downward trend, particularly in summer, with 75% of the stations in eastern Taiwan exhibiting significant declines, suggesting a shift toward drier conditions. These findings imply that fewer crop options may be suitable for cultivation in eastern Taiwan due to water resource constraints. Additionally, seasonal and annual PP showed slight decreases, with a more uneven distribution observed in central Taiwan. Therefore, improving hydraulic facilities and irrigation systems will become important. Furthermore, comparisons between the multivariate Mann–Kendall test and the traditional univariate approach revealed some different results, indicating the need for further research to identify a more reliable approach. |
| 發表成果與AI計畫研究主題相關性 | 本研究針對臺灣地區1995至2022年間的氣候變數變化進行深入分析，結果顯示 ET₀ 上升、乾燥指數下降及降水不均等現象已成趨勢，對農業生產造成潛在風險。這些趨勢性資料不僅提供氣候監測的重要依據，也能作為專家診斷系統的知識來源。透過將氣候變異資訊納入專家診斷系統，可提升系統對作物徵狀問題判斷的準確性與實用性，強化專家診斷系統面對氣候變遷的決策能力。 |
