2025-06-10
【學術亮點】評估不同播種期之天氣變動對玉米產量波動的衝擊
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【學術亮點】評估不同播種期之天氣變動對玉米產量波動的衝擊
Intelligent Detection: Development of expert diagnosis system for crop cultivation and management【Department of Agronomy / Bo-Jein Kuo / Professor】
智慧檢測：作物栽培管理專家診斷系統開發【農藝系郭寶錚教授】
上架日期2025/5/17
Intelligent Detection: Development of expert diagnosis system for crop cultivation and management【Department of Agronomy / Bo-Jein Kuo / Professor】
智慧檢測：作物栽培管理專家診斷系統開發【農藝系郭寶錚教授】
| 論文篇名 | 英文：Evaluating the impact of weather variability on maize yield fluctuation for different sowing dates 中文：評估不同播種期之天氣變動對玉米產量波動的衝擊 |
| 期刊名稱 | Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
| 發表年份, 卷數, 起迄頁數 | 2025, 371, 110625 |
| 作者 | Yuan-Chih Su, Ping-Wei Sun, Hung-Yu Dai, and Bo-Jein Kuo (郭寶錚)* |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110625 |
| 中文摘要 | 氣候變遷所造成之頻繁且高強度的不良天氣 (adverse weather) 會導致作物產量有較大的起伏，而調整播種期可避免生育期間遭遇不良天氣進而減緩作物產量的起伏。為了釐清不同播種期與玉米 (Zea mays L.) 產量起伏之間的關係，本研究進一步評估不同生育期間的天氣條件與不良天氣對玉米產量的影響。結果顯示，不同播種期之間的天氣條件主要的差異為生育期間的氣溫與特定生育期間之降雨，其中特定生育期間之降雨有著較高的年度波動。此外，有著高降雨年度波動與高頻度不良降雨之播種期其相對產量 (relative yield) 較低且產量之變異係數 (coefficient of variance) 較高。根據作物模式的模擬結果，最低且最不穩定的產量通常出現在生育期間氣溫較高且營養生長期間不良降雨頻度年度波動大的播種期。臺灣春作與秋作玉米的產量受到不良天氣的顯著影響，且不良天氣可解釋超過50%的產量觀測值變異。在不良高溫與不良降雨的天氣條情境下，預測產量將會降低約2500 kg/ha。本研究首先評估播種期對天氣變動的影響，接著皆由天氣變動與產量起伏之間的關係找出造成玉米產量起伏的關鍵因子。結果指出，玉米產量起伏受到營養生長期間的不良降雨影響。此外，需要在現今氣候變遷的條件下重新評估播種期。 |
| 英文摘要 | Frequent and intense adverse weather resulting from climate change can lead to high fluctuations in crop yields. However, sowing dates can be adjusted to avoid adverse weather and thereby mitigate crop yield fluctuation. To elucidate the relationship between the sowing date and fluctuations in maize (Zea mays L.) yield, this study evaluated the effect of weather conditions, including adverse weather, on maize yield during different growth periods. The primary difference in weather conditions between sowing dates was the temperature during the whole growth period and precipitation during specific growth periods; notably, precipitation exhibited higher annual fluctuations. Furthermore, a low relative yield (<70 %) and high coefficient of variation (>15 %) were noted for sowing dates with high annual fluctuation in precipitation and adverse precipitation events frequency. In simulations, the lowest yield and yield stability were those for the sowing dates with high temperature during the crop season and high annual fluctuation in adverse precipitation events frequency during the vegetative stage. In both crop seasons, adverse weather significantly affected maize yield and explained >50 % of observed yield variation. Under the weather scenario of adverse high temperature and precipitation, an approximate 2500-kg/ha reduction in yield was predicted. This study first evaluated the effect of sowing dates on the variation of weather conditions, then correlated these variations to yield fluctuation to identify factors contributing to maize yield fluctuation. The results indicate that adverse precipitation during the vegetative stage affects crop yield fluctuation and sowing dates must be reevaluated under climate change. |
| 發表成果與AI計畫研究主題相關性 | 本研究顯示，氣候變遷導致的頻繁且高強度的不良天氣對玉米產量造成顯著影響，不同播種期所面臨的氣候條件差異，特別是生育期間的高溫與不良降雨，與產量起伏高度相關。模擬結果顯示，不良高溫與降雨可能導致產量減少達 2500 kg/ha，且超過 50% 的產量變異可由不良天氣解釋，顯示天氣因素在生產風險管理中扮演關鍵角色。團隊開發之專家診斷系統已建立歷年的氣象與氣候資料，將此研究成果列入到知識庫與診斷建議當中，可強化作物管理的決策。 |
